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Главная - Экономика - Russia (на английском языке)

Russia (на английском языке) Экономика. Дипломная

  • Тема: Russia (на английском языке)
  • Автор: Юлия
  • Тип работы: Дипломная
  • Предмет: Экономика
  • Страниц: 52
  • Год сдачи: 2010
  • ВУЗ, город: Москва
  • Цена(руб.): 4000 рублей

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Выдержка

Signed Statement I declare that this dissertation has not already been accepted in substance for any degree and is not concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. It is the result of my own independent research except where otherwise stated. Abstract The main goal of the research was to determine ways of economic development of Russia in the process of unprecedented transition. The objectives of the research were: to study Socio-Political Context of the drama of 2008: from economic miracle to economic crisis, i.e. to define the peculiarities of the present crisis, the causes of the crisis and ways of reaction to the crisis; to study Monetary and Budgetary Spheres and determine Main Measures in the Monetary and Credit Policy Area; to analyze investments of pension savings in the system of mandatory pension insurance in Russia; to develop scenarios of Development of Russian Economy in 2009;to analyze the activity of Real Sector researching Macrostructure of production, Influence of Internal and External Demand on GDP Dynamics and Structure, Dynamics and Proportion of Gross Saving and Gross Accumulation in GDP, foreign Investments; identifying problems with Attracting Foreign Institutional Investors to the Russian Market. The hypothesis of the research was that Russia has a great economic potential that can lead to the economic growth not only of Russia but of the World Economic System. Two major methods were used in the research: making the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models and The Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The findings suggested that the impact of economic development of Russia on the world economic system was great. A few possible scenarios of development of Russia’s economy in 2010-2011 were represented. The forecasts were built on the basis of a structural econometric model designed by the Institute for the Economy in Transition. The results of the scenario-based forecasting calculations of the dynamic of the basic macroeconomic indicators of RF evidenced that the average annual price level for oil (Urals) was assumed at the level of USD 41/barrel, while the capital outflow from the country (with account of the article “Omissions and mistakes” of the balance of payments) was set at the level of USD 80bn. The volume of the federal budget expenditures was assumed to amount to Rb. 9.69trln, with the federal budget deficit financed primarily from the Reserve Fund of RF. The Euro/USD exchange rate was assumed to remain stable at the level of USD 1.35/Euro. It was the most probable scenario (the basic one) in the frame of which Russia has a chance to survive through the year with minimal macroeconomic shocks, which might form a favorable starting position for exiting from the crisis and will lead to higher level of economic relations with other countries. Contents Page Introduction 8 The Literature Review 11 Research Methodology 19 Presentation of Findings and Discussion 24 Conclusion and Recommendations 47 Appendices 52 Bibliography 53 List of Abbreviations CGE - Computable General Equilibrium models GTAP - Global Trade Analysis Project VAR - Vector Autoregressive model ECM - error-correction model SAM - social accounting matrix IAS - international accounting standards

Содержание

Signed Statement I declare that this dissertation has not already been accepted in substance for any degree and is not concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. It is the result of my own independent research except where otherwise stated.

Литература

Bibliography 1.Alekseev, A., Tourdyeva, N. amd Yudaeva, K. (2003): “Estimation of Russia’s trade policy options with the help of the General Equilibrium Model”. CEFIR Working Paper, 42 2. Anker, M. and Sonnerby, P. (2008): “Russian Revenue Management under Vladimir Putin”. 3. Benedictow, A., Fjaertoft, D.B., and Løfsnæs, O. (2009): “An Econometric Macro Model for the Russian Economy”. RussCasp Working Paper 4. Fjaertoft, D.B. (2008) “Russian Monetary Policy and the Financial Crisis”, RussCasp Working Paper 5. Hauner, D. (2008): “Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia”. IMF Working Paper, WP/08/201 6. Jensen, J., Rutherford, T., and Tarr, D. (2004): “The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investments in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization”. World Bank Working Paper 7. Kerkela, L. (2004): “Distortion Costs and Effects of Price Liberalization in Russian Energy Markets: A CGE Analysis”. BOFIT Discussion Papers, 2004/2 8. Rautava, J. (2002): “The Role of Oil Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in the Russian Economy”. BOFIT Discussion Paper, 2002/3 9. Rutherford, T., Tarr, D. and Shepotylo, O. (2005): “The Impact on Russia of WTO Accession and the Doha Agenda: The importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investments in services for growth and poverty reduction”. World Bank Working Paper 10. Sulamaa, P. and Widgrén, M. (2005): “Economic Effects of Free Trade Between the EU and Russia”. The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy Discussion Papers 11. Varshavsky, A. (1999) “Macroeconomic Aggregate Model for Researching Arrears and Stabilization of the Russian Economy”. Final Report, EERC Project 12. Wehrheim, P. (2003): Modeling Russia’s Economy in Transition, Ashgate Publishing House.

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